The Lewin Group recently released an analysis of the health reform bill, American Affordable Health Choices Act of 2009. The study examined two scenarios based on who is determined eligible for the public plan option, and how it affects premiums, coverage and spending.
Key findings in the analysis, regardless of who is covered under the public plan, show that individual premiums would average 25 percent less than private coverage; for families, the average public premium would be 20 percent less.
Public plan reimbursements to both hospitals and doctors would likewise go down. Doctors would receive an average 14 percent less from the public plan for the same treatment; hospitals would see an average 32 percent less.
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If the public plan is limited to individuals and small businesses, enrollment could increase by 33.6 million Americans, while 34.9 million left private plans. Before taxes and Medicare changes are implemented, the cost to the federal government could be over $900 billion between 2010 and 2019; after those changes, the cost falls to $100 billion.
If the plan is extended to all Americans, the number of people covered by the public plan could swell by 103.4 million people. Private plans could lose 83.4 million people. The cost to the federal government is significantly less, however. Between 2010 and 2019, the government could spend $858 billion before tax changes and Medicare reforms, and $55.3 billion after the changes.
State governments could see a similar drop in costs. If the plan is limited to small firms and individuals, costs could fall by over $67 billion. Under an expanded plan, local governments could spend $158.3 billion less than they currently do.
Click here to read the full report.
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