I once taught an Econ 101 class to a gaggle of freshman at a premier SUNY school. They gave me a bad evaluation, primarily because, to explain the free rider problem, I read them the Dr. Seuss book "Thidwick the Big-Hearted Moose." In the story, animals learn it's easier to ride the moose's antlers instead of walking. At first, the helpful Thidwick doesn't have a problem with this. Eventually, the weight of the free riders becomes a burden and slows him down. With the approach of hunting season, this places him at risk. The animals he ferries, now accustomed to their costless mode of transportation, actually call Thidwick selfish when he asks them to leave. With the hunters approaching, fate would soon play a pivotal role.

It turns out moose shed their antlers annually. Fortunately for Thidwick, this event occurrs just before the sportsmen arrived. So, instead of Thidwick's head mounted on the wall in the den pictured on the last page, we see the mounts of all those animals who thought they could ride free forever. Thus ends Dr. Seuss's allegory against all things Marxist.

Equity markets, like moose, constantly move. Instead of feet, though, individual stock prices provide the means of motion. Underlying this are millions of individual investors, all independently deciding on the optimal price for any particular stock.

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Well, most stocks, at least. For some very small companies, it's tough to find anyone to trade with. It's been said these illiquid stocks "trade by appointment." As a result, it's very difficult to obtain a reliable value on the stock's price. Often considered speculative, these stocks exhibit must higher volatility compared to their blue chip kin.

Why? Because any one trader can swing the bid-ask spread dramatically. Worse, most traders can end up on the same side (i.e., all are sellers or all are buyers). The dearth of a contra party means the price will either skyrocket (if there are dramatically fewer sellers than buyers) or plummet (if there are dramatically fewer buyers than sellers). Given the scarcity of traders in general, these extremes can yoyo in very short periods of time.

Sound familiar? The lack of a contra party has been blamed as the reason for the near total collapse of our banking system in 2008. It's also been cited as one possible reason for last year's flash crash (we certainly do know that something similar happened in the 1987 crash that pretty much sealed the folly of "portfolio insurance" programs).

What do Thidwick and illiquid stocks have to do with ETFs? Most ETFs are index-based (or passive) investments. In a sense, index investors represent the free-riding animals to the market's moose. They'll go where ever the market takes them, which history suggests is exactly where they want to go. But, by passively riding along, these investors remove themselves from actively participating in the market. At some tipping point, as more investors shift from active to passive, more and more individual securities within any particular market will begin to experience the same illiquidity problems micro-cap stocks experience today.

Soon, like a deadly virus, illiquidity will spread to even the largest stocks, creating markets with exaggerated volatility. Theoretically, just like the animals weighing on Thidwick the endangered moose's life, the lack of active investors will threaten the very existence of our capital markets. And that will destroy our economy.

So, at what point does the market leave its free-riding index investors high and dry by shedding its antlers? I honestly don't believe the government is brave enough to outlaw index investing, the most obvious solution to prevent this problem. Too many well-endowed organizations have too many vested interests and that means campaign dollars. Similarly, even Machiavellian consumer advocacy groups see index funds as a means which (at least up until now) justify the ends. Investors themselves enjoy the ride (well, maybe except for the "Lost Decade," but the industry has quickly covered up that fact thanks to the public's short attention span).

Fortunately, like the natural biology of moose, the market has a natural built-in mechanism for dumping these free-riders. I've run out of space here, but if you'd like to know what it is (and how you can take advantage of it), read this humorous piece, "3 Reasons to Outlaw Index Investing Right Now (and One Selfish Reason Not To) in 5 Acts." Be forewarned, before reading you might want to first brush up on your Marx – Groucho, that is.

 

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Christopher Carosa

Chris Carosa has been writing a weekly article and monthly column for BenefitsPRO online and BenefitsPRO Magazine since 2011 and is a nationally recognized award-winning writer, researcher and speaker. He’s written seven books, including From Cradle to Retire: The Child IRA; Hey! What’s My Number? – How to Increase the Odds You Will Retire in Comfort; A Pizza The Action: Everything I Ever Learned About Business I Learned By Working in a Pizza Stand at the Erie County Fair; and the widely acclaimed 401(k) Fiduciary Solutions. Carosa is also Chief Contributing Editor of the authoritative trade journal FiduciaryNews.com and publisher of the Mendon-Honeoye Falls-Lima Sentinel, a weekly community newspaper he founded in 1989. Currently serving as President of the National Society of Newspaper Columnists and with more than 1,000 articles published in various publications, he appears regularly in the national media. A “parallel” entrepreneur, he actively runs a handful of businesses, including a small boutique investment adviser, providing hands-on experience for his writing. A trained astrophysicist, he also holds an MBA and has been designated a Certified Trust and Financial Advisor. Share your thoughts and story ideas with him through Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/christophercarosa/)and Twitter (https://twitter.com/ChrisCarosa).