NEW YORK (AP) — A private research group forecast that the economy will grow slowly as summer turns into fall — if U.S. politicians can agree to raise the amount the government can borrow.

The political impasse means the government could default on its debts next month, potentially setting off a financial crisis. If a deal is reached by an Aug. 2 deadline, that "headwind" would recede, and the economy should resume its modest recovery, said Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein.

The Conference Board said Thursday that its index of leading economic indicators rose 0.3 percent in June. The index had rebounded 0.8 percent in May after dropping 0.3 percent in April. The April decline was the first since June 2010.

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