The U.S. health bill will account for 19.8 percent of the nation's spending by 2020, up from 17.6 percent in 2009, outpacing projected average annual GDP growth, researchers say.
The data, published July 28 by the trade journal Health Affairs, projected health spending will reach nearly $4.64 trillion by 2020, half of which will be coughed up by the government. Federal and state government spending will increase due to new insurance exchanges and an increase in the number of Americans on the Medicaid program because of health care reform.
The Health Affairs report studied how President Barack Obama's reform law will reshape who foots the bill for the nation's medical expenses.
“During this period, we expect that the Affordable Care Act of 2010 will reduce the number of uninsured people by nearly 30 million, lead to prescription drugs and physician services accounting for a greater share of health spending than would have been the case otherwise, and contribute to an increase in the government-sponsored (federal, state, and local) share of health spending,” report authors wrote.
For example, the authors—economists and actuaries from the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services—found spending on prescription medications is projected to increase by 10.7 percent in 2014, 5.1 percentage points and $15.8 billion more than would have been the case in the absence of the ACA.
Though recently, the recession and weak economy has kept health spending in the last year “historically low” because more Americans have avoided and delayed medical treatments. Job losses cutting the number of people covered by employer-sponsored insurance, too, caused health spending in 2010 to increase only by 3.9 percent.
But researchers expect national health spending will increase more rapidly, averaging a 4.9 percent hike, in 2011-2013 because of a faster growth in private health insurance spending related to anticipated gains in employer-sponsored health insurance enrollment.
The biggest spending increase, though, is expected in 2014 when most aspects of the new health reform bill kicks in. The report projects that national health spending will grow 8.3 percent in 2014, up from a projected 5.5 percent growth rate in 2013.
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