I'm managing two fantasy football teams this year. One is with some high school buddies, the other is more of a random assortment of laptop gridiron enthusiasts. In both of them, Peyton Manning is my star quarterback.
Correction, was my star quarterback. Now with an additional neck surgery, they're saying Manning might not even be able to play at all this season.
The question of exactly how brutal a sport American football is has never really been up for debate. A 300 pound man running at 15 MPH is putting off about 3,000 joules of kinetic energy: that's double the energy of an AK-47 bullet. Imagine getting hit by that dozens of times a game!
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What has been up for debate is how serious of a long-term effect these AK-47 bullet-like impacts have on the players, and how much the NFL actually does to protect them, with the NFL usually getting a bad rap on safety (titanium helmets are expensive). One point of insight is how the NFL handles players' retirement and disability.
I've always considered actuaries to be the coolest of all employee benefits professionals – who wouldn't want to be a mathematical fortune teller with a calculator-shaped crystal ball? And it's the actuary who I think is the most forward thinking at the NFL. Compare the disability rates for nonfootball players involved in the NFL retirement and disability plan:
Age Rate
22 .05%
27 .05%
32 .05%
37 .07%
OK, seems reasonable. What about the disability rates for active players? It's easy. Take the above chart and double it:
".10% per year for active players and .08% per year for inactive players until age 45 after which it becomes zero. Active players are assumed to become inactive after one year of service or age 30, whichever comes later."
So clearly someone crunching the numbers on behalf of the NFL knows that something is up. Being a player is hazardous. But is double really enough? Maybe that's why Aon listed the plan's funding status as "Endangered" in their audit.
Or maybe Peyton Manning was only injured so all my high school buddies can point and laugh at me all over again. It's what I deserve for thinking actuaries are super cool.
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