On January 30, New York Times op-ed columnist Ezekiel J. Emanuel and Jeffrey B. Liebman, a professor of public policy at Harvard, published what they called "a bold prediction for the new year."

"By 2020, the American health insurance industry will be extinct," they write. "Insurance companies will be replaced by accountable care organizations—groups of doctors, hospitals and other health care providers who come together to provide the full range of medical care for patients."

Without a crystal ball, of course, it's impossible to know whether this forecast is an accurate one. Talking with other professionals in the health care and insurance industry, however, suggests that the scenario Emanuel and Liebman paint is only one of many possible futures for ACOs and the health benefits industry as a whole.