Republicans will take control of the Senate, capital gains taxes will increase, equities and the economy will hold steady and – the Department of Labor should not redefine the definition of fiduciary.
Wishful thinking? Perhaps. But these are the findings of the Financial Services Institute's recent poll of its members, which found that the economy is a top issue and that Mitt Romney is the top choice for president, garnering 81 percent of respondent votes. Yet when asked who will likely win in November, Romney comes out just slightly ahead of Barack Obama.
The poll was conducted last week and was completed by almost 2,400 financial advisors across the country, providing updated information to a similar FSI poll conducted in February 2012. Here are the questions, and the responses:
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Who do you believe will win the race for the White House this fall, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney (not who do you want to win, but who will end up winning)?
Barack Obama 1,104 47 percent
Mitt Romney 1,244 53 percent
If the election was held today, would you vote for Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
August 2012 February 2012
Barack Obama 365 15 percent 536 19 percent
Mitt Romney 1907 81 percent 2356 81 percent
Other 88 4 percent - -
What is the top issue affecting your vote for president this year?
Economy/Jobs 1,501 63 percent
Foreign Affairs 17 1 percent
Healthcare 177 7 percent
National Defense 15 1 percent
National Debt 492 21 percent
Other 171 7 percent
Will the U.S. Senate stay in Democrat control or shift to Republican control?
August 2012 February 2012
Democrat 699 30 percent 901 31 percent
Republican 1649 70 percent 1996 69 percent
Do you believe capital gains taxes are heading up or down?
August 2012 February 2012
Up 2221 95 percent 2605 91 percent
Down 122 5 percent 273 9 percent
Do you believe the remainder of 2012 will be a strong, neutral or weak year for equities performance?
August 2012 February 2012
Strong 473 20 percent 1047 36 percent
Neutral 1514 64 percent 1621 56 percent
Weak 383 16 percent 252 9 percent
Do you believe the Department of Labor should redefine the definition of fiduciary for financial advisors effectively banning the earning of commissions on IRA advice?
August 2012 February 2012
Yes 253 11 percent 798 28 percent
No 2106 89 percent 2078 72 percent
Will the U.S. economy recover in 2012, stay flat or worsen?
August 2012 February 2012
Recover 377 16 percent 1126 38 percent
Stay Flat 1634 69 percent 1618 55 percent
Worsen 361 15 percent 181 6 percent
Does your future business model include a greater movement to fees versus commissions?
Yes 1724 73 percent
No 638 27 percent
"This poll shows the economy and taxes are weighing heavily on the minds of advisors," said Dale Brown, president of FSI. "They are bracing themselves and their clients for a stagnant economy and an increase in capital gains taxes."
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