WASHINGTON (AP) — The economic threat that's kept many Americans on edge for months is nearing reality — unless the White House and Republicans cut a budget deal by New Year's Day.

Huge tax increases. Deep cuts in domestic and defense programs. The likelihood of sinking stock prices, reduced consumer spending and corporate layoffs. The risk of a recession within months.

Still, the start of 2013 may turn out to be far less bleak than feared. For one thing, the two sides may strike a short-term agreement before New Year's that postpones spending cuts until spring. President Barack Obama and members of Congress return to Washington Thursday.

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