Years after the insurance industry began warning that premiums will rise due to health reform, the Obama administration acknowledged Tuesday that it might actually be the case.
Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius told reporters at the White House that some people may see their premiums rise under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.
"These folks will be moving into a really fully insured product for the first time, and so there may be a higher cost associated with getting into that market," Sebelius said. "But we feel pretty strongly that with subsidies available to a lot of that population that they are really going to see much better benefit for the money that they're spending."
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Sebelius's comments were published online late Tuesday by the Wall Street Journal.
"This is the first time ever in the history of the United States that insurance companies have to file their rates, it has to be very transparent, they have to offer the same kind of coverage without 5,000 tiny little lines and internal caps, and they have to compete for customers," Sebelius said. "And I am a believer in the market strategies that in and of itself will minimize the rate impact."
Health insurers have long warned that health reform will increase health coverage costs, but the Obama administration has repeatedly said reform will increase coverage while reducing costs.
Though the law eliminates practices that have imposed higher rates on women and people with medical conditions—likely reducing premiums for women, the elderly and the sick—premiums for men, healthy individuals and younger beneficiaries are expected to increase. Insurance premiums could rise for some with individual plans, Sebelius said.
In a report, the Society of Actuaries predicted this week that insurers will pay 32 percent more on average within three years for medical claims under reform, as more patients enter the insurance market and take up higher-value benefits. The study attributes potential premium hikes to the expected influx of sicker people into the health care market. Changes also would vary significantly by state.
"Health care reform's watershed year is almost here, though it will take a while for a stable state to be reached. The projections in this study suggest that when the dust settles by 2017, we can expect mixed results on the reform bill's goals of expanding coverage and reducing costs," Kristi Bohn, consulting health staff fellow at the Society of Actuaries, said in a statement.
Though the law will significantly reduce the number of Americans who are uninsured, the size of the individual market will more than double an increase driven in part by people who are below 200 percent of the federal poverty line coming into the market. "This group of people are considered to be 'good risks' and are generally expected to bring down average costs," Bohn said. "But other changes in composition of the individual market will more than offset these lower costs, and in fact, will drive average costs up."
America's Health Insurance Plans has also argued that PPACA's age rating restrictions will increase premiums for younger individuals, while the health insurance tax will significantly increase costs for consumers and employers in all 50 states.
The bulk of the law—including the health exchanges and the individual mandate—goes into effect in January 2014, which at that time the premium costs will be known.
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