Federal Reserve economists have now weighed in on the job-killing aspects of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.

Some political conservatives are sure to balk, but according to these economists, the PPACA has had little or no real impact on the relatively high percentage of part-time workers seen today.

Relying on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' definition of part-time workers – those who typically work fewer than 35 hours per week — Rob Valletta and Leila Bengali of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco titled their paper, "What's Behind the Increase in Part-Time Work?" Their thoughts are best summarized in this salvo:

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"Both the impact of the (PPACA) law so far and the ultimate effect are likely to be small. Before the law was passed, most large employers already faced IRS rules that prevented them from denying available health benefits to full-time workers. These rules gave employers an incentive to create part-time jobs to avoid rising health benefit costs. Moreover, recent research suggests that the ultimate increase in the incidence of part-time work when the ACA provisions are fully implemented is likely to be small, on the order of a 1 to 2 percentage point increase or less."

The authors crunched a mountain of part-time employment data, reaching back to 1976 as a starting point. Their summary of findings reads:

"Part-time work spiked during the recent recession and has stayed stubbornly high, raising concerns that elevated part-time employment represents a 'new normal' in the labor market.

"However, recent movements and current levels of part-time work are largely within historical norms, despite increases for selected demographic groups, such as prime-age workers with a high-school degree or less. In that respect, the continued high incidence of part-time work likely reflects a slow labor market recovery and does not portend permanent changes in the proportion of part-time jobs."

Indeed, all of "this is unsurprising given that the U.S. labor market has recovered only about three-fourths of the jobs lost during the recession and its aftermath, which leaves finding a full-time job still challenging for many workers," the researchers wrote.

Digging into their report reveals some fascinating information. Among the tidbits:

  • In Hawaii, "part-time work increased only slightly in the two decades following enforcement of the state's employer health-care mandate."
  • All the data on part-time employment developed over the last several decades have been extracted from the Current Population Survey, the monthly survey of just 60,000 U.S. households.
  • Part-time employment peaked at 20.3 percent in 1983; the recent peak of 19.7 percent was reached in 2010. "By this standard, the level of part-time work in recent years is not unprecedented, although its persistence during the ongoing recovery is unusual," the authors wrote.
  • Young workers are "much more likely to work part time than older workers," the study said, in reference to the 16-24-year-old demo. The report listed such factors as "financial dependence on their parents, school enrollment, relatively low skills, and, more generally, weak labor force attachment" as probable causes.
  • Part-time work has declined for married women with more than a high school education.

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Dan Cook

Dan Cook is a journalist and communications consultant based in Portland, OR. During his journalism career he has been a reporter and editor for a variety of media companies, including American Lawyer Media, BusinessWeek, Newhouse Newspapers, Knight-Ridder, Time Inc., and Reuters. He specializes in health care and insurance related coverage for BenefitsPRO.