Federal budget officials have been complaining about the effects of the group health tax exclusion for years.

Killing the federal group health tax break could cut the percentage of Americans with employment-based health coverage in half. But capping the exclusion at the median premium would simply lead to a modest reduction in the percentage of people with incomes over 200 percent of the federal poverty level (FPL) who have coverage.

Allison Percy, an analyst at the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), makes those predictions in a slide deck she prepared for a presentation she delivered at the American Society of Health Economists.

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