“Risk and return are related.” That was the soundbite of the 20th century, the mantra of Modern Portfolio Theory. Whether through those ubiquitous risk tolerance questionnaires or nearly any portfolio optimization software package, in one way or another, most professionals have been trained to use the mathematical equivalent of risk to plot investment strategies.
There's only one problem: It's all wrong.
Our use of risk fails in two ways. First, the industry has vastly misinterpreted the definition of the risk/return relationship. It has implied an absolute correlation between real risk and real returns exists. In truth, it's always been the perceived risk that's related to the expected return. Indeed, academic studies upon which many have based the use of risk tolerance questionnaires specifically warn against their use. Maybe the marketing guys forgot to read the fine print.
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