There's no evidence to support the oft-predicted increase in part-time workers as a response to provisions of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.
At least not yet.
That's the conclusion of an in-depth study of workforce data undertaken by researchers at the Urban Institute and the University of Illinois. Funded largely by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, the study sliced and diced existing information on part-time vs. fulltime workers before and after PPACA's enactment.
Recommended For You
What they wanted to know was whether the number of employees working 30 hours or less had increased since the law began to take fuller effect in 2013. The law, once fully implemented, will require certain employers to offer health insurance to anyone working more than 30 hours a week, on average.
What the study found was a slight (0.6 percent) increase in the number of folks working 30 hours or less in 2014, compared to the projected percent of workers in that category based on historical trends and data.
The researchers attributed all of this tiny divergence from projections to the lingering effects of the recession, not to PPACA. Further, the study strongly suggested the media has overplayed the likelihood of the part-time response by picking up on anything that might suggest an increase in 30-hour-or-less workers was happening.
"Based on our analysis, we find no evidence that the ACA affected parttime employment in 2013 before the implementation of the major ACA provisions. There were no apparent anticipatory effects of the ACA's employer mandate provisions on this measure," the study concluded.
"However, data indicate that among all workers, there has been a small, statistically significant, increase in part-time work in 2014 (relative to what would be expected given the decline in the unemployment rate). The increase is entirely due to an increase in involuntary part-time work—workers preferring to work full-time but who cannot find such employment. … [We] suggest the increase in involuntary part-time work is most likely due to the severity and depth of the Great Recession — not the ACA."
The researchers promised to keep a close eye on the situation just in case a true correlation between PPACA and part-time workers were to emerge as the law unfolds.
© 2025 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.
Dan Cook
Dan Cook is a journalist and communications consultant based in Portland, OR. During his journalism career he has been a reporter and editor for a variety of media companies, including American Lawyer Media, BusinessWeek, Newhouse Newspapers, Knight-Ridder, Time Inc., and Reuters. He specializes in health care and insurance related coverage for BenefitsPRO.
