Early analysis finds that average premiums among benchmark Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act plans will fall slightly next year in 16 major cities.
According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, premiums for PPACA's silver plans will fall by an average of 0.8 percent in these cities when open enrollment begins Nov. 15.
Premium changes vary from a 15.6 percent decrease in Denver (to $211 per month) to an increase of 8.7 percent in Nashville (to $205 per month).
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"There is variation, but so far, premium increases in year two of the Affordable Care Act are generally modest," said Kaiser Family Foundation CEO and President Drew Altman. "Double-digit premium increases in this market were not uncommon in the past."
Kaiser analysts also said "it's important to note that rate changes may be different in different rating areas in these states."
The preliminary data is a far cry from fears over double-digit increases many predicted for the second year of enrollment.
Increased carrier competition could be driving health insurance prices down.
According to the analysis, at least two carriers will offer coverage through the marketplaces in the major city in each of the 15 states studied as well as the District of Columbia. Most areas will have five or more carriers, and three will have 10 or more. Kaiser said that carrier participation generally held stable or increased in all of the cities, with the exception of Portland, Oregon, where the number of participating carriers fell from 10 to 8.
Kaiser Family Foundation also predicted that, in the same 15 cities, the lowest cost bronze plan premium will increase by 3.3 percent in 2015. Changes also vary, from a decline of 15.7 percent in the premium (to $196 per month) for the lowest-cost bronze plan available in Hartford, Conn., to a premium increase of 13.3 percent (to $165 per month) for such a plan in Baltimore.
Despite the good-news estimates, analysts warned consumers to pay close attention to enrollment options, as "even people who receive federal financial help may face large premium increases if they simply re-enroll in the same plan in 2015."
"Consumers should go into the open enrollment period prepared to shop for the best deal all over again," said Kaiser Senior Vice President Larry Levitt, co-executive director of the foundation's program for the study of health reform and private insurance. "You could end up paying more if your insurer is no longer offering one of the low-cost plans, so you should look carefully at your options."
The analysis is based on 16 markets where states have publicly released comprehensive data on rates or rate filings for all insurers.
Also read: Where shoppers pay more for exchange plans
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