About 9.6 million could lose health coverage, and millions more could suffer crushing premium spikes, if the Supreme Court rules that federal exchange subsidies under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act are invalid, new research finds.
Researchers from think tank the RAND Corp. came this conclusion in a new study. The 9.6 million figure would equate to 70 percent of enrollment in the federal exchanges.
Unsubsidized premiums in PPACA-compliant individual market would increase 47 percent, or $1,610 annually, for a 40-year-old nonsmoker on a silver plan.
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The research detailed the crushing impact the Supreme Court ruling on the King v. Burwell case could have on the future of PPACA as well as on those covered under the law. Though others have said that the SCOTUS ruling could unravel the massive health care law, the RAND report details further the impact of the case on consumers, including projected premium increases.
"Instability caused by eliminating subsidies in the [PPACA]-compliant individual market could severely impair its viability and significantly reduce access to health insurance for millions of Americans," the RAND report read.
RAND researchers wrote that if the court declares the subsidies illegal in the federal exchange, the number of U.S. residents with coverage purchased on the individual market would decline from 13.7 million to 4.1 million. That's because, they said, the ruling would have a domino effect on consumers: First, those losing subsidies would drop their coverage, decreasing the number of people in the insurance pool. That would cause soaring premiums, by nearly 50 percent, which would cause many more remaining consumers to drop their coverage.
Kaiser Family Foundation researchers in November similarly estimated that 13 million Americans could lose financial assistance, with more than half living in five states: Florida, Texas, North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania.
The Supreme Court's announcement to hear the lawsuit — claiming that the administration doesn't have the legal authority to give tax credits to buy insurance in the federal exchanges — came shortly before the second open enrollment period for PPACA began. The justices will consider an appeal filed by four Virginia residents seeking to block the federal subsidies in 36 states.
Arguments are set for March 4.
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