The impending shortage of physicians has been much discussed, especially since the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act has made medical services available to and affordable for millions of Americans who weren't previously making many trips to primary care providers.
Now, the Association of American Medical Colleges has produced a study designed to quantify this shortage. And the number they're projecting is a big one: a 90,400-physician shortfall by 2025.
That's the high-end number. AAMC says the shortfall could be as low as 46,100 — still a serious gap between providers and patients.
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Yet, the gap is far less than the AAMC projected in its 2010 study. Then, the number at the high end was 130,600. So progress is being made to mitigate the shortfall, much of it coming from the expanded duties now performed by non-MD professionals.
The study projects patient demand to grow by 17 percent over the period, while physician supply will increase by 9 percent. Physician specialty areas, such as surgery, are expected to experience the greatest shortfalls. For instance, the study projects a primary care shortfall of between 12,500 and 31,000, and a non-primary care shortfall of between 28,200 and 63,700.
While the study acknowledges that the PPACA's extension of coverage to some 26 million Americans is a factor in the gap, it also says that the share of the 17 percent demand growth is just 2 percent. Most of the increased demand is attributed to population growth between now and 2015 and the increasing numbers of older Americans who will be seeking services.
The authors of the study point out that the shortfall's range is a considerable one, and that the lower end of the shortfall reflects the increasing numbers and role played by advanced practice nurses and other health care professionals, especially physician assistants, who now provide services once restricted to MDs.
"While this rapid growth in supply of APRNS and Pas could help reduced the projected magnitude of the physician shortage, the extent to which some specialties (e.g., surgery specialties) can continue to absorb more APRNs and Pas given limited physician supply growth is unclear," the study said.
The AAMC report follows recent analysis by the Commonwealth Fund that found that PPACA's newly insured patients will not crash the health care system, contradicting assertions by some medical groups that the law would aggravate a shortage of doctors and otherwise strain health services.
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Dan Cook
Dan Cook is a journalist and communications consultant based in Portland, OR. During his journalism career he has been a reporter and editor for a variety of media companies, including American Lawyer Media, BusinessWeek, Newhouse Newspapers, Knight-Ridder, Time Inc., and Reuters. He specializes in health care and insurance related coverage for BenefitsPRO.
