Young people's faith in their future Social Security benefits is at rock-bottom.
According to one recent survey, 64% of millennials (ages 21-34) agree with the statement: "I'm more likely to win the lottery than receive any money from Social Security."
But does this matter to the powers-that-be in Washington?
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The answer may become clear over the next year as the Social Security Disability Income (SSDI) program exhausts its DI trust fund. SSDI pays monthly disability benefits to 11 million Americans.
Congress and President Obama have begun sparring over whether a short-term fix called "reallocation" can be used to fill the DI fund shortfall. Reallocation shifts a small part of existing payroll taxes from the Old Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund to DI, leaving the combined program unchanged. The president's budget proposal favors reallocation while Republicans oppose it, in favor of more substantial SSDI reforms.
While it may appear that both sides are engaged in more Washington gridlock and can-kicking, the issue could help to rally public interest in the future of Social Security, especially in the 2016 election year.
The real problem with DI isn't short-term funding but rather long-term trends and deep deficits. Over the past 20 years, the number of Social Security retirement beneficiaries has increased at an average rate of 1.7% per year as baby boomers have aged. But DI beneficiaries have increased at twice the rate (3.4% per year). DI trustees have projected that the fund will continue to run cash flow deficits of more than $30 billion per year.
Doing nothing (except reallocation) sends a cynical signal to young people that Washington is powerless to protect their stake in Social Security. Increasing payroll funding rates will help to increase long-term program viability, while skewing benefits to current retirees and increased costs to working people. To achieve inter-generational fairness, policy-makers also will need to consider cutbacks in benefits paid to current retirees.
Do boomer retirees have all the political clout on their side? Not necessarily. There are 77 million millennials in the U.S. vs. 65 million boomers. Millennials are more ethnically diverse and "media-wired" than boomers, and winning their loyalty will be the big prize in U.S. elections over the next decade.
Also, millennials aren't alone in having concerns about their financial futures. To engage boomers clients in this discussion, here's a good question to ask: "Would you be willing to accept modest reductions in your own benefits, to help Social Security stay viable long-term for your children or grandchildren?"
For useful background, the Heritage Foundation recently published an informative briefing paper on the DI trust fund and options for fixing it:
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