The balance of all student loans outstanding in the U.S. increased to $1.3 trillion in the second quarter of 2014, compared to only $363 billion a decade ago.
About $100 billion of federal student loans are currently in default, and the situation has begun to create a drag on U.S. economic growth.
In April, Census reported that the U.S. homeownership rate fell to 65.4%, the lowest level since 1995. Many young people can't afford to buy homes because they are so crushed repaying student debts.
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At a recent conference, renowned hedge fund manager Bill Ackman called student loan defaults the biggest risk in the U.S. credit market, and he predicted a presidential administration eventually will decide to forgive some federal student debt principal.
Would such forgiveness be difficult? Perhaps not politically, because federal student loans are off the federal balance sheet, not subject to Congressional appropriation.
A student loan forgiveness program could take many forms, including a "helicopter drop" by the Federal Reserve.
The term derives from a 2002 speech given by former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, in which he observed that the Fed could throw cash from helicopters, if necessary, to combat deflation.
Giving money selectively to U.S. households, to stimulate economic demand, isn't a new idea. It was behind the Cash for Clunkers tax rebate program used to stimulate trade-ins of old cars for new ones in 2009. In that case, a $3 billion helicopter drop was financed by the U.S. Treasury, not the Federal Reserve.
In one variation of a federal program to forgive student debt, borrowers would be eligible to reduce outstanding loan principal up to a limit (e.g., $10,000), dollar-for-dollar with the down payment on the purchase of a first home. Although this may not happen soon, the concept is probably more economically sound than Cash for Clunkers.
Whatever shape student loan forgiveness may take in future years, there are three points you can emphasize to clients now, to help them anticipate the possibility: 1) Take federal student loans, if necessary, rather than private or bank loans; 2) Have students take the loans, rather than parents; and 3) Don't rush to pay off federal student debt quickly after graduation. Take advantage of any forbearance or income-based repayment (IBR) options available.
Some young people are so crushed by student loan repayments that they can't focus on long-term financial goals, such as buying life insurance or participating in a 401(k).
High-level policy discussions about student loan forgiveness should, at least, remind young people that they have planning choices. Repaying loans should not always be the only priority.
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