Three recent surveys of small business owners find that, while they are generally optimistic about the future in many respects, they still have a number of serious concerns.
The most recent Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index report noted that the index, which hit 71 last quarter, declined to 64 this quarter. Both scores are below pre-recession levels. The report noted, "Small business owners' optimism appears to be tempered in the current quarter by owners' perceptions of declining revenues and a slight uptick in their perceived difficulty of obtaining credit. The reports of declining revenues suggest that the downtick in owners' overall attitudes, more than merely reflecting general attitudes abut the U.S. economic environment, appears to indicate an actual negative turn in their business performance."
In terms of revenue, less than half (42 percent) of owners in the Wells Fargo/Gallup survey this quarter said their revenues have increased "a lot" or "a little" within the last 12 months. This is down from 49 percent reporting the same last quarter.
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In terms of credit availability, 25 percent of owners this quarter said it was "very" or "somewhat" difficult to obtain credit in the past 12 months. This is up from 20 percent reporting the same last quarter. In addition, 28 percent this quarter expected it would be "very" or "somewhat" difficult to obtain credit during the next twelve months. This is up from 23 percent reporting the same last quarter.
The most recent NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey rose to 96.9 last month from 95.2 the month before. The report noted, "Overall, the index remains steady, but it is still a few points below the average, and is showing no tendency to break out into a stronger pattern of economic growth. Solid economic growth would require good performance from both big and small firms, and that will likely be elusive this year."
Of specific concern to small business owners are earnings trends, expectations for the economy in general, expected credit conditions, current inventory levels, and sales expectations.
In terms of sales expectations in specific, the report noted, "Expected real sales volumes posted a three point decline, falling to a net 10 percent of owners expecting gains, after a five point decline in January and February, and a two point decline in March. The four-month downward trend does not bode well for the economic growth in the small business sector. Overall, expectations are not showing a lot of strength."
And while small business owners are not optimistic about expected credit conditions, the more interesting news related to that is that a lot of them don't even care, because they have no need or desire to borrow, due to weak expectations for growth in their businesses. The NFIB report noted, "For most of the recession, record numbers of firms have been on the 'credit sidelines,' seeing no good reason to borrow." It added, "Interest rates are low, but prospects for putting borrowed money profitably to work have not improved enough to induce owners to step up their borrowing and spending."
A third recent survey, the Wall Street Journal/Vistage Small Business CEO Confidence Index, noted that, "Optimism among small firms declined slightly in the latest Wall Street Journal/Vistage Small Business Survey, largely due to an economy weakened by unusually harsh winter weather, the L.A. port shutdown, and weaker experts from a stronger dollar."
One particular concern among small business owners surveyed related to customers asking for extended payment terms. In response to the question, "Have any of your clients requested extended payment terms, and, if so, how long are they?" nine percent reported 30 days, 20 percent reported 90 days, four percent reported 120 days, and one percent reported more than 120 days. (The remainder reported that customers had not asked for extended payment terms.) When asked, "How have delayed payment terms affected your business?" 29 percent reported "negatively," 29 percent reported "unchanged," 39 percent reported "not applicable," and two percent reported "positively."
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