I'm not one for self-censorship, but I must admit I was forced to remove a controversial chapter from my latest book “Hey! What's My Number?” It wasn't that the contents were factually incorrect. It wasn't that they didn't like the book. Rather, they informed me, if they endorsed the book, including the offending chapter, they would publicly call into question their entire business model.
If you're immersed in the standard marketing mantra, what follows will shock you. Nonetheless, it represents empirical truths from studies by well recognized authorities. That the results of these studies have failed to break the misinterpretation of asset allocation tells you more about the power of successful marketing than the power of academic honesty.
The seminal studies upon which the foundation of asset allocation as we know it was built were conducted by three researchers: Gary P. Brinson, L. Randolph Hood, and Gilbert L. Beebower (collectively known as “BHB”). The first BHB study (1986) was popularly interpreted as concluding asset allocation was responsible for 93 percent of a portfolio's return. A follow-up study (1991) refined that number to 91 percent. By the late 1990s, industry stalwarts like Fidelity and Vanguard trumpeted the “fact” that “91 percent of a portfolio's return is attributable to its mix of asset classes.”
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