What if advisors to the 401(k) market had a crystal ball, could see the near-term future of the clients they serve, and knew which sponsors would be putting their plans out for bids and why they felt the need to do so?
One provider of research to advisors and providers of workplace plans recently published a white paper suggesting the next year could bring significant turnover in the 401(k) market.
Cogent Reports, the financial services research arm of Market Strategies International, is not exactly claiming to have that crystal ball.
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But in the recent white paper, "Navigating Change in the 401(k) Market," researchers drew on two surveys of plan sponsors to conclude an increased incidence of formal plan reviews translates to evidence that more sponsors are contemplating switching service providers, and more are planning to modify investment lineups.
For the most proactive advisors to 401(k) plans, that would be welcome news as more turnover could mean vast opportunity.
Cogent's surveys went right to decision makers on plans ranging in value from less than $1 million to more than $1 billion in assets.
Across that spectrum, one-quarter of all sponsors surveyed said they plan to "reevaluate" their plan provider in the next year. That's up from 18 percent one year ago.
Does that alone guarantee significant turnover is in the immediate offing? Not necessarily.
However, the paper does attempt to parse how sponsors are thinking relative to their size, potentially useful insight to advisors looking to both grow their book and hold on to the plans they have.
Significantly more sponsors of micro plans—those with less than $5 million in assets—told Cogent they plan to reevaluate their investment lineups. Nearly half (45 percent) said that is top of the agenda, up from 33 percent that said so the previous year.
A similar portion of small plan sponsors—those with $5 million to $20 million in assets—reported they would reevaluate their investment lineup, also a significant increase from the previous year.
Cogent's data show the concerns of the large plans ($100 million to $500 million in assets) and mega plans (over $500 million in assets) turn more to cost efficiencies.
Respondents from larger plans said their primary goal in the coming year is to reduce plan costs while balancing the goals of enhancing participant education and improving participants' retirement readiness.
Skeptics may suggest Cogent has quantified the obvious with its new data. Seasoned plan advisors probably won't be surprised to learn more sponsors are concerning themselves with fees or lineup efficiencies, or that participant education and savings outcomes are guiding larger sponsors' thinking.
But when only 36 percent of sponsors surveyed said they are certain they will do nothing relative to plan administration this year, it may be safe to conclude that complacency is no friend of advisors in the immediate future. The researchers surmise that all advisors should be prepared to defend the quality of their investment recommendations and the overall value proposition to sponsors and participants.
That jibes with comparable data from Chatham Partners, another research firm supporting the retirement plan industry.
This summer, it released data from a survey of 11,000 plan sponsors suggesting satisfaction with service providers is on the wane.
Chatham said 57 percent of sponsors claim to be "loyal" to incumbent service providers, a 4 percentage point decrease from the previous year.
And 15 percent said existing relationships were "at risk," a 2 percentage point increase from last year.
Fewer sponsors consider themselves "promoters" of their service provider, and more characterized themselves as "detractors."
Those facts could create openings for proactive advisors who have the capability not only to counsel sponsors on investments but to act as their advocate on all aspects of plan administration.
The complexities of record keeping agreements and relationships with third-party administrators are nuanced and can boggle the minds of even large plan sponsors that have significant layers of in-house fiduciary protection.
Advisors who remain consistently engaged with sponsors and understand their evolving expectations with respect to all aspects of plan administration can not only protect existing relationships, but also better leverage their services if the predictions of turnover come to fruition.
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