The U.S. is not alone in its struggle with high drug prices.
IMS Health, a health care industry consulting firm, projects that global drug spending will rise 30 percent in the next five years.
By 2020, the world will be spending $1.3 trillion on medicine, up from the current $1 trillion.
In fact, reports the firm, consumers would likely be on the hook for even more if some important medical patents weren’t set to expire in the next few years.
The generic versions of some expensive medicines will offer significant savings to consumers.
Like many other economic sectors, much of the pharmaceutical industry’s future growth will be driven by emerging economies in Asia, Latin America, and Africa. IMS cutely refers to countries such as China, India, Indonesia, and Brazil, which account for over 3 billion consumers, as “pharmerging markets.”
In total, the report claims that emerging markets will claim two-thirds of global medicine spending by 2020, when more than half of the world’s population will be taking more than one drug dose per day.
While drug use remains significantly higher in developed countries, the gap between use in the developed and developing world will narrow in the coming years, the report states.
But the West still has a vital role to play in fueling the drug industry.
Wealthy countries are still home to most of the critical research and development that leads to expensive new medicines. The group estimates that 225 new drugs will be approved for sale in the next five years.
"In developed countries, it's all about the innovation coming out of the R&D pipelines. We've got this surge of innovation, particularly in oncology and rare diseases and hepatitis C," Murray Aitken, executive director of the IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics, told the AP.
Other technological innovation will make a big impact on health care in the coming years, although it’s not always clear whether that means higher costs or savings for patients.
The rise of telehealth will hopefully make it cheaper and easier for providers to keep tabs on patients and avoid costly and unnecessary visits.
“By 2020, technology will be enabling more rapid changes to treatment protocols, increasing patient engagement and accountability, shifting patient-provider interaction, and accelerating the adoption of behavior changes that will improve patient adherence to treatments,” says the report summary.
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