Obamacare doesn't appear to have led to people shifting to part-time work, says a new study.
The study, led by Asako Moriya, an economist at the Center for Financing, Access and Cost Trends at the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, examined work trends from the Current Population Survey from 2005-15, including work hours at firms, stated reasons for working part-time, age, education, and health insurance status. [Update: Read an interview with and see a citation to Asako Moriya research.]
The study sought to assess claims by critics of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, as well as nonpartisan analysts such as the Congressional Budget Office, that the health law creates a major incentive for workers to quit their jobs or reduce their hours because they can more easily acquire insurance without an employer.
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"We found only limited evidence to support this speculation," concluded the researchers.
The study found no increase in the probability of working part-time in 2015.
Instead, it merely found a 0.18 percent increase in the probability of working between 25 to 29 hours per week from 2013-14.
Even that effect may be due more to decisions made before PPACA took effect, either unrelated to the law or in anticipation of its implementation.
That's not to say there haven't been any negative effects. The study found evidence that some employers have reduced the hours of employees who were already part-time.
Larry Levitt, an economist at the Kaiser Family Foundation, told the Washington Post that the many anecdotes about people cutting hours in response to the PPACA are likely true, but not necessarily indicative of a widespread change.
"You can't deny those stories — they're real. They're just not generalizable. It's not what is mostly happening, based on this study and others," he said.
One notable example, reports the Post, is burger chain White Castle, which made good on its threat to cut hours so that more of its employees work less than 30 hours a week and are therefore not due health coverage from the company.
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