If current spending trends continue, Medicare will be insolvent by 2028, according to the Medicare Trustees Report released Wednesday.
By the end of this decade, both Medicare and Social Security will be doling out more in benefits than they receive in taxes.
The new report projects that Medicare will run out of money two years sooner than it had projected last year. The more pessimistic estimate is a result of changes in anticipated incomes.
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The good news, however, is that because health care costs have actually slowed in recent years, the depletion of Medicare's trust fund will not come as soon as estimated several years ago. In 2009, for instance, Medicare was projected to go broke by 2017.
Since 2009, per-enrollee Medicare spending has grown less than the economy, at only 1.4 percent per year. However, Medicare Part D spending on prescription drugs is expected to 5.8 percent per year over the next decade.
That the drug benefit is growing faster than other medical services is indicative of the dramatic price increases for drugs that treat cancer and other common illnesses such as hepatitis and arthritis.
Medicare's planned reforms to rein in costs are only just beginning, however. It was this year that the program is putting in place a program that reimburses hospitals for certain surgeries based on hospital readmission rates post-operation. And beginning last year, Medicare reserves 1.5 percent of its funds to reward top-performing hospitals based on quality of care and efficiency.
In 2019, Medicare plans to begin a more aggressive outcome-based system of reimbursement, called MACRA, that will hopefully bend down the cost curve and keep the massive health care program that serves tens of millions of seniors solvent for many more years to come.
The other most notable proposal to rein in Medicare's costs is to raise the age of eligibility. In the health care overhaul proposed by House Republicans earlier this week, the age would increase from 65 to 67.
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