Everyday people in America are finally showing some confidence in the economic recovery. But, a new study from Rutgers finds, their view of the economy is still out of sync with what's really going on.
The university's WorkTrends 2016 report tells us that Americans have moved up from quite suspicious of the strength of the comeback, even as recently as 2010, to fairly certain things are getting better. However, misconceptions are abundant, the researchers found.
For instance, folks are pretty confident these days that they can find a job. Nearly 70 percent of those surveyed said they felt a degree of confidence that, if they lost a job, they could find another. The percent of those who said they were either extremely confident or very confident shot up to 31 percent this year compared to 20 percent two years ago.
Yet despite the clear evidence that the 2016 economy has improved over the past year (the unemployment rate is now below 5 percent), 67 percent believe it's the same as last year (38 percent) or worse (29 percent). Just a third say they thought it had improved.
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Most folks are not very optimistic about 2017: Half say next year's economy will be the same as this year's, 21 percent say it will get worse. Just three in 10 say it will improve.
They still have “personal concerns” about the current state of the economy.
Says the report: “When asked to think about their personal concerns about the national economy, over 6 in 10 say they are concerned and another 27 percent say they are either worried (20 percent) or scared (7 percent). While the percentage of American expressing concerns has dropped since 2009, these responses reflect the lingering uneasiness about the current state of the American economy.”
That may be because more than half the respondents (57 percent) didn't know the unemployment rate had dropped below the magic “full employment” benchmark of 5 percent. They thought it was still much higher, with 30 percent saying they thought it exceeded 9 percent.
Despite this overall pessimism about the near future, when asked about their personal financial shape, folks say they were generally feeling much better about that this year than two years earlier. In 2014, 41 percent described themselves as in good or excellent financial shape. This year, 52 percent are feeling chipper.
The survey goes into fine detail on such topics as the upcoming election and how it may impact the economy, responses to questions about the capabilities of American workers, how well satisfied folks are with their jobs, and more. Stepping back and looking at the big picture, what emerges most clearly is that Americans as a group remain a melting pot when it comes to news and views of current events, and that the majority are still somewhat traumatized by the pain of the last recession.
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Dan Cook
Dan Cook is a journalist and communications consultant based in Portland, OR. During his journalism career he has been a reporter and editor for a variety of media companies, including American Lawyer Media, BusinessWeek, Newhouse Newspapers, Knight-Ridder, Time Inc., and Reuters. He specializes in health care and insurance related coverage for BenefitsPRO.
