Hillary Clinton and President-elect Donald Trump offered vastly different positions on health care policy over the past 18 months.
Most of the candidates' proposals revolved around the Affordable Care Act. Clinton vowed to secure, and even expand upon, President Barack Obama's signature policy. Trump offered fewer specifics, but regularly promised to repeal and replace the ACA with something “better.”
Each candidate's proposals would have clear implications for the private individual insurance market and the ACA's subsidized exchanges.
But their proposals' potential effects on the employer-provided market, the voluntary market in particular and the health care consumerism trend, was much less clear.
What, exactly, would Trump's repeal-and-replace promise mean for the millions of previously uninsured Americans with ACA-enabled health care? Would Clinton's pledge to implement a public option within ACA exchanges ultimately transform the current market into a single-payer system? How would employers receive Clinton's proposal to extend Medicare to workers as young as 55? Would regulators at the departments of Health and Human Services and Labor continue to assume their aggressive stance toward certain voluntary products?
When we originally posed those questions to policy and industry experts, we did so presuming that Clinton would emerge as the victor on election night, as was long predicted by pollsters in the runup to the Nov. 8 election.
Our readers can be assured of this: That presumption was never motivated by a preference in outcome. The aforementioned questions are substantial – and, in some cases, largely unexplored. As the polls closed, a preponderance of pundits — even Fox News — projected a much narrower road to a Trump victory. Fivethirtyeight.com publisher Nate Silver – widely viewed as an agnostic polling data analyst – predicted a wide range of electoral college outcomes. About three-quarters of those favored a Clinton victory.
Then, the returns began. NBC called Ohio for Trump around 10 p.m. EST. The DOW Jones futures market plunged by as much as 800 points. By 10:40 p.m., the New York Times placed the odds of a Trump victory at 91 percent.
At the Javitz Center in New York, where Clinton supporters had gathered to celebrate the victory they believed was a foregone conclusion, grief began to set in. NBC reported just after midnight that the Clinton campaign had “gone dark.”
Around that time, David Plouffe, the strategist and campaign manager behind both of Obama's successful runs, tweeted, “Never been as wrong on anything in my life.”
By 1:30 a.m., House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wisconsin, had placed a congratulatory call to Trump.
About an hour later, Clinton also called Trump – to offer her concession.
At roughly 2:50 a.m., Trump took the stage before supporters at the New York Hilton.
“Sorry to keep you waiting,” Trump told supporters. “Complicated business.” A reference, clearly to, the long campaign season that had finally come to an end.
Health care consumerism likely undeterred
Clearly, changes to the major health care market are in the offing. Analysts are already predicting that the Affordable Care Act will be quickly dismantled. While Trump has stated that he would keep certain components of the ACA, such as the provision providing dependents coverage up to 26 years of age, as well as reducing pre-existing condition limitations, what actually will occur remains to be seen. Experts say it would be difficult to replace the law with something equitable, and repealing without replacing would be a disaster. And exactly what all this will mean for employer-provided health care, consumerism and the voluntary benefits market also remains to be seen.
Here is what we do know: In 2016, deductibles rose an average of 12 percent for the 150 million Americans who have health care coverage on the group market – four times more than premiums increased, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation.
The trend is most pronounced in groups under 200 lives where more than two-thirds of workers are in high-deductible plans with an average deductible of $2,000.
That, of course, has been a trend for some time. Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Drew Altman, CEO of the Kaiser Family Foundation, said it predates, rather than stemming from, Obamacare.
An increase in group market deductibles creates clear opportunities for benefit design innovation, said Eric Silverman, CEO of voluntary benefits brokerage Silverman Benefits Group.
“Any time deductibles are rising, you have an increased market opportunity for voluntary employee-funded benefits,” said Silverman. “With that said, I feel strongly that these benefits will continue to grow regardless of deductible increases.”
The consumer-driven revolution will continue, further pushing voluntary benefits into the mainstream, said Silverman, who describes himself as policy-aware yet politically agnostic.
“[This has] been going on for the 17 years I've been in this industry,” he said, from the viewpoint of a millennial who began his voluntary benefits career on the carrier side. “And consumerism is growing at a much faster pace these days.”
Paul Fronstin, director of the Health Research and Education Program at the Employee Benefits Research Institute, said the migration to group market-based high-deductible plans would continue irrespective of the election's outcome. [Ed. note: Fronstin made this and subsequent comments before the Nov. 8 election.]
“I don't see anything slowing it down,” Fronstin said of the shift toward consumerism. “Employers are moving in this direction in large part because it is the easiest and most functional way to address their costs.”
While the notion of high-deductible plans coupled with savings accounts and voluntary options is not new, most workers are still unware of the benefits of this approach.
“We're at a point where only 29 percent of the workforce is in a high-deductible plan accompanied by a savings option,” added Fronstin. “There is a lot more room for growth. I don't see the trend slowing.”
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