The man sitting across the table from me remained unmoved. I tried to mimic his calm innocent demeanor. Inside, though, my mind raced. This man was heading towards a precipice, going sixty, with no brakes. And he had no idea.
I struggled to find the right words. I wanted to help him, but I didn’t want to scare him. He needed to stare at this reality in a cool, deliberate manner. Sort of like he was acting right now.
But there was hope. I’d seen, however, many similar cases, albeit not as acute as this one. This man appeared healthy, and he was relatively young.
He didn’t need to retire, he merely wanted to retire. He had barely any savings, he didn’t seem concerned about saving more than he was, and he was determined to claim Social Security as early as possible; thus, dooming himself to a lifetime of suboptimal payments.
So I took a deep breath, looked him in the eye, and took the subtle path. “OK, I just ran through your projected retirement income numbers,” I began, “and it looks like you’ve got about $16,000 in annual income.” I didn’t outright say that number was too low, but the tone of my voice certainly implied it. I expected him to “get it.” Instead, his response floored me.
“$16,000,” he looked shocked, “that’s more than I thought,” he said with a satisfied smile. “I was figuring on only $10,000.”
Now it was my turn to be shocked. “Are you telling me you can live on $10,000 a year?” I said. I really wanted to say “Are you telling me you EXPECT to live on ONLY $10,000 a year” but I didn’t want to be that condescending.
Truth be told, I was familiar with the cost of living spectrum for the area. I knew the low end was low, but I refused to believe it was that low. I just couldn’t imagine it.
Then the man sitting across to me explained it. He meticulously outlined the expenses he expected. It was quite comprehensive.
The only assumption I could question was his “black swan” emergency fund. Sure it was a low probability item, but I tend to be conservative in that way. That’s a personal thing, and this guy was comfortable with his assumptions.
This little vignette occurred years ago and forever changed my perception of the so-called “retirement crisis.” I’m not the only one with this assessment (see “Retirement Readiness: Are We Using the Right Metric?” FiduciaryNews.com, November 22, 2016).
Indeed, any statistician could tell you that just because you’re below average doesn’t mean you can’t succeed (and, likewise, just because you’re above average doesn’t guarantee you’ll be a success). There are just too many variables beyond the easy data points we can measure.
Here’s a clear way to understand it. New York City boasts the highest cost of living within the United States. You can save more than the average America and retire with more than an average sized retirement fund. And you still might not be able to afford to live the lifestyle you want in New York City.
At the same time, with a below average-sized retirement fund, you will find you could live that very same lifestyle – if not a greater one – just a few hours down the Southern Tier Expressway west of New York City. And you don’t even have to escape the high tax haven of New York State.
Same lifestyle. Opposite sides of the “retirement crisis” mean. Yet the person with more money can’t live that lifestyle in New York City, while the person with less money can live that lifestyle in the Greater Western New York Region.
So, do we change national policy to appease the New York City retiree and potentially place the retirement of the Western New York retiree at risk?
Before we embrace these “one size fits all” analyses, perhaps we need to hear from 401k participants who shouldn’t be able to retire in comfort but do.
Who knows? Maybe we’ll discover you can survive on Social Security all by itself.
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Christopher Carosa
Chris Carosa has been writing a weekly article and monthly column for BenefitsPRO online and BenefitsPRO Magazine since 2011 and is a nationally recognized award-winning writer, researcher and speaker. He’s written seven books, including From Cradle to Retire: The Child IRA; Hey! What’s My Number? – How to Increase the Odds You Will Retire in Comfort; A Pizza The Action: Everything I Ever Learned About Business I Learned By Working in a Pizza Stand at the Erie County Fair; and the widely acclaimed 401(k) Fiduciary Solutions. Carosa is also Chief Contributing Editor of the authoritative trade journal FiduciaryNews.com and publisher of the Mendon-Honeoye Falls-Lima Sentinel, a weekly community newspaper he founded in 1989. Currently serving as President of the National Society of Newspaper Columnists and with more than 1,000 articles published in various publications, he appears regularly in the national media. A “parallel” entrepreneur, he actively runs a handful of businesses, including a small boutique investment adviser, providing hands-on experience for his writing. A trained astrophysicist, he also holds an MBA and has been designated a Certified Trust and Financial Advisor. Share your thoughts and story ideas with him through Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/christophercarosa/)and Twitter (https://twitter.com/ChrisCarosa).
