It's worth noting that geopolitical risks have overtaken economic risks for the first time since 2014, as we've gotten further away from the financial crisis and are now pondering the effects of political changes, including the Brexit vote and the outcome of the 2016 U.S. elections. Other year-over-year changes we've seen over the course of the 10 annual surveys are less drastic — cyber risk prediction has decreased, but remains the strongest. Geopolitical category risk predictions are higher than 2015, highlighting a pattern of increased perceived risk on even years, possibly tied to the U.S. election cycle. Technology is another risk that has continued to rise in the rankings.

It's easy to see what happened in the past, you might say, but what about the future? As an actuary, it's my job to help anticipate and plan for these trends. The main thing I learn from surveys like these is how to put seemingly unrelated pieces together to anticipate risks. Take the biggest worry, cyber-risk. Ten years ago cyber threats were a big concern, but the biggest threat of the day was spam. Today, our biggest cyber fear is hackers. In a decade we just don't know what we'll be facing, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't be planning for an emerging risk that is evolving.

Personally, the time horizon of different risks is something I always focus on. It's true that we're always engaged in putting out fires by altering product design and repricing, but we also need to look into the future to anticipate the fires that might spring up tomorrow. Looking at emerging risks is extremely helpful for making plans that keep benefits and prices stable — underwriting anticipated claims based on spam fraud still protects claims based on identity fraud from a data hack, for example.

Considering the elements that make up the risks is similarly helpful for predicting where instability and volatility can crop up in the future. The technology category is vast, and contains things like drones, driverless cars and Wi-Fi-enabled "Internet of things" appliances. Drone delivery and automated shipping could reduce the risk for the transportation industry, while Internet-connected appliances vulnerable to pranksters, for example thermostats, could increase risk for home insurers.

Other ripped-from-the-headlines examples are driverless cars and the opioid crisis. Building off a deep data pool and decades of experience with both cars and life expectancy, we're confident in our predictions that driverless cars will reduce accident rates and claims, and that the opioid crisis will continue to have a tragically negative effect on mortality and life expectancy. Car insurance will be less risky and cost less if the trends continue, and life insurance will have increased risk and cost more. Each of these risks will continue to evolve as industry and regulation react. Insurer data collection can assist these third parties make decisions that benefit society.

But, we don't always see what's coming. Taking stock of the things we know and the things we don't helps us meet our customer's needs and build resiliency. We don't have robot butlers and flying cars, like the writers on "The Jetsons" envisioned (at least not yet), but we do have robot vacuums and drones that can survey an area unsafe for humans. You don't even have to stretch the truth to say that with current driverless car and drone technology, we have all the constituent parts of a flying car, albeit without the cool retro fins.

It may sound like just a joke, but to an actuary, it immediately gets us thinking about the implications. Will future technology make transportation safer, decreasing the risk and premiums for auto insurance, or will claims for damage driven by hacked or poorly written code increase the risk? Will enough accidents be avoided to significantly impact morbidity and mortality, passing savings on to companies in both health and life benefits?

Flying cars are just one eye-catching example of how we don't necessarily know what the exact risk we're working to mitigate will end up being. But, with a bit of work and some educated predictions, we can anticipate future risks and their impact.

About the survey

A total of 223 risk managers from across the globe participated in this online survey in November 2016. The research was sponsored by the Joint Risk Management Section (JRMS) of the Canadian Institute of Actuaries, Casualty Actuarial Society and Society of Actuaries.