The GOP will not try to repeal Obamacare in 2018.
After several attempts to fulfill one of the party's central campaign promises ended in embarrassing defeat last year and polls show that the landmark health law is more popular than ever, Republican leaders in the House and the Senate see a lot of risk and little reward in trying again.
Getting a bill through the Senate has only become harder since Democrats picked up a Senate seat in a December special election in Alabama, leaving Republicans with a slim, two-seat majority in the upper chamber.
“It would be a heavy lift. I think everybody knows,” Sen. John Thune,R-S.D., tells Politico. “We sort of tested the limits of what we can do in the Senate last year. And we're one vote down from where we were then.”
In fact, there's little hope that Congress will even pass a budget this year, which would allow Republicans to use the reconciliation process necessary to get a bill through the Senate with only 51 votes.
Rather than engage in an effort that is both unpopular and likely won't succeed, Republicans hope to focus in the coming months on promoting the tax bill that they passed in December. They believe that is their best bet for improving their poor standing with voters and keeping control of Congress after the midterm elections in November.
Even Rep. Mark Meadows, R-N.C., the leader of the ultra-conservative House Freedom Caucus, conceded that an Affordable Care Act repeal is unlikely in 2018. But he is optimistic that it could happen in 2019 if Republicans hold their ground in the elections.
“If we keep the majority in the House and they get a larger majority in the Senate then you might look at a reconciliation vehicle after November.”
While Democrats are confident that they will pick up seats in the House, the Senate elections this year greatly favor the GOP. Democrats are defending seats in 10 states that President Donald Trump carried in 2016, while Republicans are only defending one seat in a state that Hillary Clinton won. To gain a majority in the Senate, Democrats will have to pick up two seats in Nevada and Arizona while protecting their incumbents in a number of solidly red states, such as West Virginia, North Dakota, Indiana and Montana.
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