Annuity spelled out in letter tiles Fixed indexed annuities could provide an answer to the problem of outliving one's retirement funds. (Photo: Shutterstock)

New research by economist Roger Ibbotson indicates that bonds could be the wrong place to be in retirement portfolios over the next decade, with fixed indexed annuities poised to deliver better returns.

The white paper "Fixed Indexed Annuities: Consider the Alternative," researched and written by Ibbotson and his team at Zebra Capital Management, suggests that bond returns in the current historically low interest rate environment may not be up to the challenge of meeting the anticipated retirement needs of U.S. investors, with many possibly being at risk of outliving their retirement savings.

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Ibbotson's latest research says that uncapped fixed indexed annuities help control equity market risk, mitigate longevity risk and have the potential to outperform bonds in the near future.

In collaboration with Annexus, the researchers used S&P 500 Index dynamic participation rates to simulate FIA performance over the past 90 years. The data, which considered historical volatility, interest rates, and dividend rates, indicated that uncapped FIAs would have outperformed bonds on an annualized basis for the past 90 years.

In addition, it also found it "highly unlikely" that bond investors will reap as high a return from capital gains over the next decade as they have in the past 10 years. In fact, if rates rise, the paper finds, capital gains in the future will be negative (capital losses).

It adds that uncapped FIAs offer a more tailored risk profile than bonds, capturing a portion of the growth offered by large-cap stocks while lowering overall market risk.

In the report, Ibbotson says, "What financial advisors should acknowledge is the immense impact that shifting market conditions, longer life expectancies, and uncertainties surrounding the future of Social Security have made on our U.S. economy. In recent years, we recognized the potential of these conditions to result in a perfect storm where investors may be left with insufficient funds to carry them through retirement."

He continues, "Conventional wisdom has most investors derisking their portfolios by allocating more heavily to bonds as they approach retirement. However, investors should consider other alternatives such as FIAs. In this low-interest-rate environment, complacency can be a danger to our clients' futures."

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Marlene Satter

Marlene Y. Satter has worked in and written about the financial industry for decades.