The prologue past through the reader’s lens – Carosa

Do you want to become an expert at predicting the future? There’s an easy way to do it, but it does have an important limitation.

Here’s a metaphor:

At this precise moment, a rock rolls down a steep incline. Where will it be in the next second? Where will it be in the next hour? The next day? The next year? The next millennium?

You get my drift. It’s far easier to extrapolate a near-term event to predict the short-term future. The more distant you travel into time, the more difficult it is to fathom what that future looks like.

The first step, however, remains getting a confident picture of that near-term event you deem most relevant. If you’re reading this, you’ll probably want to know what interests top industry players the most. (see “Top 5 FiduciaryNews.com Stories in 2019 for the 401k Plan Sponsor and Fiduciary,” FiduciaryNews.com, December 24, 2019).

If we can choose one word to describe plan sponsors in 2019, it would be “anxious.”

Now, don’t go jumping to conclusions. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing. In fact, it could be a very good thing. To be anxious means to be alert, on your toes, ready to make a move at a moment’s notice. Those are all good things.

OK, maybe a better word might have been “preparing.”

You see, in reviewing the most widely read articles in FiduciaryNews.com, it becomes obvious folks are concerned about what they don’t know. Maybe they’re concerned about more than that. Maybe they’re concerned about not knowing what they don’t know.

To address this concern, they’re looking for specific answers. Actually, it’s likely they’re looking for the right people – the people who can provide those specific answers.

If you want to be one of those people, you want to discover what the questions are that prompt this need for specific answers. To find those questions, go to the crowd. For the crowd, though it may have its fault, is not without some wisdom.

Only it’s not the wisdom most people are searching for.

It is, nonetheless, a valuable source of wisdom for those with the keenness of eyesight to discern that wisdom. Here’s what that wisdom reveals: The wisdom of the crowd reveals the question, not the answer.

Once you understand that, you can understand why it’s valuable to follow the crowd.

And by “follow the crowd” I don’t mean chase after it like a lemming. No. I mean to track it. Measure its pace. Get a good picture of where it’s at right now, what direction it’s moving in, and how committed it is in continuing in that direction.

Only then can you confidently predict it will be in the short-term. And by capturing a series of “correct” predictions (even if they’re short-term), people will begin to notice you. They may even ask you for a long-term prediction.

Don’t fall to that temptation.