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New artificial intelligence technology boasting the capability of "learning" how to do more advanced tasks can already translate, predict credit behavior, drive cars and provide answers to voice queries, replacing the humans who once did that work. But to expect that "emerging" tech—computers that rely on AI rather than simple subroutines—will actually replace older human workers by 2040 is a mistake, since older humans still have capabilities that even AI can't duplicate.
So says a brief from the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, which seeks to project how older workers will manage in a workplace using AI-infused technology that can replicate work far beyond routine tasks.
But late boomers aren't the only ones who might be in the cross-hairs of this new tech; by the year 2040, it could also be threatening at least some of the work of older millennials and younger GenXers.
Yet the brief says that humans who work in nonstandard spaces (electricians, plumbers, etc.) still have the edge. In addition, cognitive skills such as creativity and social skills also keep humans, even older ones, firmly in the job picture.
And while baristas, truck drivers and quality control inspectors might see themselves phased out, along with workers in administration, maintenance and construction, those in business, entertainment, engineering and social services are less likely to face a pink slip provided by a machine.
According to the brief, occupations at high risk for replacement account for 16 percent of the labor force and those at medium risk for 35 percent, with the remaining 49 percent of workers at low risk—with the distinguishing factor being a college degree.
The brief concludes that education will become even more important as computers become more sophisticated, and workers who are less educated will be vulnerable to being replaced. Older workers may find themselves moving into work that relies on social skills, "which are less susceptible to automation," as they seek to adapt to a workplace that increasingly relies on automation of one form or another.
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Marlene Satter
Marlene Y. Satter has worked in and written about the financial industry for decades.
