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The "silver tsunami" is coming as more baby boomers retire, and when it does, it will shake the very foundations of the real estate market (pun intended). A report in the Tampa Bay Herald says that over the next 20 years, a flood of home sales by boomers (or their estates) will reshape real estate markets across the country.
Considering that boomers own approximately 40 percent of the homes in the U.S.—32 million—that's going to mean a lot of dwellings changing hands and a lot of neighborhoods changing.
Downsizing, relocation, moves to nursing homes or death will drive a market glut of nearly 20 million homes over the next two decades, says the report, citing a Zillow study estimate. In fact, the Florida-based newspaper adds, "By 2037, one out of every three homes in our metro area will have sold because an owner aged 60 or older died, downsized or left some other way…"
And of course the Tampa Bay area is not the only region to be affected by the aging tide of boomers, although it does top the list. Tucson, Miami and Orlando will also see massive changes as homes become available.
But while Tampa Bay sees a constant influx of residents, there are lots of places in the country where the population is stagnant—and where that flood of empty houses might create serious problems, particularly in areas where young people are leaving rather than moving in.
But boomers will be heading for city centers, to be closer to amenities for which they might not have minded traveling when they were younger. New housing on the outskirts of cities is likely to see a slowdown, and housing prices too are likely to fall as more properties become available.
Boomers as well as younger people need to heed the trend, as long-lived as it's expected to be. And those on the far end may find it harder to sell or to realize as much from a sale as they expect. And that could affect when, where and how they retire in new dwellings.
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Marlene Satter
Marlene Y. Satter has worked in and written about the financial industry for decades.
