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Not only do the majority of CEOs say that the coronavirus pandemic poses a large or severe risk to their businesses, but 11 percent say it threatens those businesses' very survival. That's among the results of a YPO survey of chief executives globally. As might be expected, the most pessimistic outlook comes from the hospitality/restaurant sector.
And while they may not be employed any longer, retirees might want to check into what CEOs think the future holds, since business survivals will affect not just how they'll live their lives during retirement, but also the assets and investments they hold, as well as the potential for jobs should they decide they need to go back to work.
Travel and dining out are big deals for lots of retirees, but with 41 percent of CEOs saying the pandemic could threaten their companies' survival, they could find themselves doing a lot more social distancing than they intended even after the pandemic ends, having to stay home and cook for themselves.
Even if they venture out to other regions or countries, the trip might be a lot tougher than it used to be, with 30 percent of aerospace/aviation companies also fearing they won't come out of the pandemic on the other side.
Shopping? No joy there, either, with 19 percent of retail and wholesale sales execs fearing the worst.
And for those seniors who might have to go back to work, they might not be able to count on either a job at McDonald's or one at Walmart—unless the latter is involved in shipping internet orders out the door.
If next year's revenues are down—and the expectation is that they will be, by 43 percent of CEOs who expect them to come in more than 20 percent below where they were at the end of March of this year—look out for the effect on dividends, and even stock prices. Employee counts are expected to be lower, too, also by more than 20 percent.
Interestingly, U.S. CEOs are the least likely, at 22 percent, to expect their total number of employees to be down more than 20 percent a year from now—but, as one report said on Monday, the U.S. is only in the "second inning" of the crisis.
And while 61 percent of CEOs say they expect a U-shaped recovery—a sharp decline followed by a longer recovery—22 percent are even more pessimistic, expecting a W-shaped recovery—a double-dip recession and recovery.
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Marlene Satter
Marlene Y. Satter has worked in and written about the financial industry for decades.
