What a difference 3 months and a pandemic makes in Americans' view of the economy
Despite across-the-board negative views of the economy, a Pew survey reveals optimism for a recovery -- shaded by political leanings.
After months largely on virtual lockdown and with Depression-era unemployment levels, it comes as no surprise that many Americans share a grim view of the economy, with less than a quarter saying economic conditions are excellent or good, while three-quarters term them fair or poor.
Even so, it may be surprising that a Pew Research Center survey of Americans’ views on the economy and impact of the massive $2.2 trillion relief package passed by Congress and signed by President Trump found that, despite across-the-board negative views of the nation’s financial health, there is optimism for a recovery — shaded by political leanings — within a year.
Given the current fraught partisan divide, it’s also noteworthy that approval for the financial aid package is at nearly 90% across political lines. That’s a sharp contrast to the 2009 economic bailout signed by President Barack Obama, when nearly 80% of Democrats and those favoring that party supported the $800 billion financial package, while nearly as many Republicans and GOP-leaners disapproved.
There is also a general consensus that a large segment of the country’s businesses, governments and and out-of-work Americans will benefit from the recently passed aid package, although less than half of those responding said it would likely be of significant benefit to the self-employed or to their own households.
“In part, this reflects the fact that lower-income adults are far more likely than more affluent people to say the aid package will benefit them,” the study’s authors wrote. “A 59% majority of those in lower-income households believe the federal aid will help them, compared with just 22% in upper-income households.”
The survey by the Pew Center’s American Trends Panel and managed by Ipsos is based on responses by 4,917 participants between April 7 and April 12.
Among its key findings:
*American’s economic situation has cratered since the beginning of the year, when 57% said it was excellent or good; just 23% felt that way when surveyed last month.
* Approval for the March aid package was at 88%, and equally strong among Democrats and Republicans. Additionally, 77% said they thought more financial aid would need to be approved in the future.
* There was widespread agreement that businesses will benefit most from the aid, with 77% saying big businesses will be helped, while 71% said smaller businesses would also be aided.
There was somewhat less sentiment that the unemployed would be helped, with 68% saying that contingent would benefit; 67% said state and local government would also be helped.
But only 49% said they thought self-employed people would be assisted, and 46% said it would likely help them out.
Asked how long the economic fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic is likely to last, the majority — 71% — said it would take at least six months to overcome the impact, including 39% who said it will take at least a year or more to recover.
The report noted that the public’s gloomy outlook came about as suddenly as the virus swept into the global consciousness.
In January, the country’s attitude about the the economy was at a 20-year high, with 57% of the public at large saying it was good or excellent, while 81% of Republicans and Republican-leaning respondents offered sunny outlooks.
At that time, people who lived in upper-income households were also far more likely to say times were good or excellent, with 73% of high earners agreeing with that sentiment while 43% in the lower-income brackets felt that way.
“Today, there are no significant differences across income tiers in positive ratings of the national economy,” the report said, and “only about a quarter in each income category rates conditions as excellent or good.”
There has also been a narrowing in the gap based on partisan leanings, which dropped from 42 percentage points in January to 26 points today. Nonetheless, Republicans are still more likely to say the economy is good or excellent by a 37% to 11% margin.
There is also a partisan divide in the perception of who will benefit most from the aid package, with Republicans thinking its benefits will be more evenly distributed than Democrats.
“Overall, 83% of Republicans and Republican leaners think the federal government’s aid package will help small businesses either a great deal (32%) or a fair amount (51%),” it said.
Only 60% of Democrats and those tending to support them felt that way.
Republicans were also more convinced that the unemployed and state and local governments would get at least a “fair amount” of aid.
GOP respondents said 80% of the unemployed would benefit, while 59% of Democrats agreed; 77 percent of Republicans felt that way about state and local governments, compared to 59% for Democrats.
Age, education and race also played a role in the responses, with 69 percent of those 65 and older saying the economy will be better in a year, as opposed to 42% of those aged 18 to 29; 34% of that younger age group thinks things will be worse.
White adults were also more sanguine about the future, with 62% saying the economy will be better in a year; 40% of Hispanic people shared that sentiment, and only 38% of African-Americans thought so.
The report also noted a change in perspective since the beginning of the year among more affluent Americans.
“Adults with a college degree and those with higher incomes are more likely to expect the economy to be better in a year than those with lower levels of education and income,” it said.
“In January, those with a college degree were less likely than those without a bachelor’s degree to say economic conditions would improve.”
Greg Land covers topics including verdicts and settlements and insurance-related litigation for the Daily Report in Atlanta.
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