The cost increase is moderate when compared to rates a decade ago but still outpaces growth in the gross domestic product, according to the report. The MMI looks at five health care costs paid for by employees and employers: inpatient and outpatient care, pharmacy, physician services and other services. Hospital costs, which rose 15% in the past three years, have increased faster than other expenses.

The report did not calculate costs tied to COVID-19, whose impact depends on the length of the pandemic, how much people defer health care and how many employees lose their employer-sponsored coverage.

"Nobody knows for sure, obviously, because there's a lot of this year left, and a lot of uncertainty," Girod said. "But some of the more recent predictions Milliman has done suggest the savings, or cost reductions, from deferred care, will tremendously outweigh any cost increases due to COVID testing and treatment. The costs for this year in total will probably be lower than they otherwise would be without COVID."

For the first time, the report estimated that better management and operations in the health care system could reduce costs by 25%, lowering a family's annual cost to $21,490.

"This has been highlighted, or the focus of attention for some people, particularly as we've run into the COVID crisis and hospital constraints," Girod said. "Some of those capacity constraints could be mitigated if we operated at greater levels of efficiency."

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