"This forecast aligns with what we saw during the last financial crisis more than a decade ago. According to SRI research, new plan formation declined nearly 40% between 2008 and 2010," said Deb Dupont, Secure Retirement Institute associate managing director. "During the same period, sales activity for existing plans (takeovers) increased slightly. If the current COVID-19 crisis results in a similar pattern, we would expect a moderate decline in sales with the new-plan/smaller-plan market to be impacted the most."

The greatest changes in the market as a result of COVID-19 will be felt in the small-plan market, the survey suggests. Recordkeepers focusing on larger plans, those of $500 million or more in assets, expect their sales to be 5 to 10 percentage points closer to goal than those who target smaller plans.

The report suggests advisors focusing on the small-plan market may have faced greater business disruptions, while the largest plans tend to be more direct-  or consultant-sold, and therefore disruptions are less consequential.

In addition, the person managing the DC plan in smaller companies is more likely to be responsible for areas other than the retirement plan — and  more likely to be occupied by the challenges of the present environment.

In addition, the study said, about a third of sales in the small-plan market are newly formed plans. Given the business disruptions caused by the pandemic, most small employers without a DC plan in place aren't likely to add one until business normalizes.

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