In June of 2020 our annual publication on our view of interest rates was published in BenefitsPRO, which was an interesting time in the economy due to the ongoing pandemic. The Fed had moved the Fed Funds rate to 0.00% – 0.25%, unemployment spiked up to 15%, and credit spreads had widened out considerably. We've since moved through a US presidential election, had multiple vaccines approved for distribution to combat COVID-19, and continued to see equity markets provide positive returns. This quick update looks at what changed in the second half of 2020 and our thoughts on what might happen with interest rates based on where we're at today.

The yield curve

In early 2020, the Treasury yield curve took a nose dive, especially at the short end of the curve. For many maturities, yields reached all-time lows. However, early in Q4, we saw the Treasury curve begin to steepen with longer term rates increasing 0.20% – 0.25%, while the short end of the curve held steady. The 10-Year Treasury yield flirted a couple of times with the current top end of our predicted range of 1.00%, but ultimately it didn't break through until early January 2021.

The Treasury Yield Curve. Source: www.treasury.gov