Coronavirus reproduction rate (time-lapse map)

As of November 9, more than 1 million Americans had contracted COVID-19, and if you have read anything related to the virus, you’ve probably heard the term R_o (Reproduction Number or R Naught). It describes, on average, how many people an infected person is likely to subsequently infect. Mathematically, it’s an extremely complex calculation, but at its core, it explains how easily a disease can spread from person to person.

A higher reproduction number means that more people will be infected, while a lower reproduction number means that fewer people will be infected. For instance, an  R_o of 1 means that each infected person subsequently infects one other person. An  R_o of 1.2 means that every person will go on to infect 20% more, and this number will grow exponentially.

The R_o of COVID-19 is not constant across the country. It is influenced by how strictly individuals adhere to social distancing and mask-wearing. The R_o can help leaders understand if outbreaks are spreading or slowing in their communities. Current data shows that the R_o for the coronavirus in the United States is between 1 and 1.5. In some communities, the R_o is 1 or less, which means that the spread of COVID-19 has been controlled or is being controlled in those areas.

While deciphering the information around the novel coronavirus can be incredibly complex, it’s important to simplify this complicated subject and make the data accessible. Here’s a time-lapse map of how the R_o is changing over time in each state.

Anthony Lukasavage is the Vice President of Engineering at Innovu, the industry leader in healthcare analytics. Tony has been a professional software developer for 20 years, with nearly a decade of that time spent in healthcare technology.