Accelerated COVID-19 vaccination rates can prevent significant number of hospitalizations and deaths
What would happen if states significantly accelerated the pace of vaccination?
Unvaccinated individuals face a five times higher rate of infection and risk of hospitalization 29 times greater than their vaccinated counterparts. Nevertheless, the pace of vaccination slowed recently to fewer than 700,000 doses per day; which could leave millions vulnerable for many months.
Related: How will the federal vaccine/testing mandate impact self-funded group health plans?
What would happen if states significantly accelerated the pace of vaccination? Researchers for the Commonwealth Fund used a simulation model to predict what would happen if several states increased the daily number of vaccine doses delivered by 50% above their pace during the last week of August. The model predicts that through the end of March 2022, increasing daily COVID-19 vaccination by 50% starting in September would prevent approximately 19,500 hospitalizations and 6,900 deaths across the 10 states studied.
The results reveal several insights:
First, if daily vaccination is increased immediately by 50%, a substantial number of infections, hospitalizations and deaths can be prevented.
Second, even states that are starting to see declines in daily hospitalizations and deaths still can benefit from accelerating the pace of vaccination now. With low rates of vaccination and persistent spread of the virus, unvaccinated people in these states remain at especially high risk.
Third, increasing vaccination rates now may blunt a potential fall or winter surge in hospitalization and deaths in upper Midwestern and Northeastern states as people spend more time indoors.
Preventable hospitalizations and deaths place a heavy burden on families, caregivers and the health care workforce. Hospital care is expensive, not just for people who are underinsured, but for federal and state insurance programs that cover the costs, with much of it borne by taxpayers. With COVID-19 restrictions lifted, hospital and health care workforce capacity will be needed to cope with other urgent health demands, such as traumatic injury, chronic disease, seasonal influenza and other respiratory viruses. The number of people with long COVID will grow as new infections continue, adding to the burden of chronic disease and the costs of care for years to come.
“The United States has ample supply, but its vaccination rate ranks last among the world’s seven wealthiest large democracies,” the research report concluded. “Vaccination works best as prevention. Quickly increasing population immunity now can prevent needless COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths while keeping hospital beds open and staffed for people with other serious health problems.”
Read more: