How much salaries will increase (or decrease) globally in 2023

The worst-hit region is likely to be Europe, where real salaries — nominal wage growth minus the rate of inflation — are seen being driven down an average 1.5%, according to workforce consultancy ECA International.

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Soaring inflation is set to put a major dent in salary increases for the second year running in 2023, according to a new survey that sees just 37% of countries globally expecting to report real-term wage hikes.

The worst-hit region is likely to be Europe, where real salaries — nominal wage growth minus the rate of inflation — are seen being driven down an average 1.5%, according to workforce consultancy ECA International.

U.K. employees suffered their biggest hit this year, since the survey kicked off in 2000. Despite a 3.5% average nominal pay increase, salaries in real terms fell 5.6%, due to 9.1% average inflation. They are set to tumble another 4% in 2023.

In the U.S. a real-terms drop of 4.5% this year is expected to be reversed by falling inflation next year, translating into a 1% real-terms salary hike.

Asian nations make up eight of the top 10 countries forecast to see real salaries rise, led by India, up 4.6%, Vietnam rising 4.0% and China up 3.8%.

Brazil’s 3.4% increase and Saudi Arabia’s 2.3% bump round out the top five.

ECA International’s Regional Director for Asia, Lee Quane, says: “Our survey indicates another tough year for workers globally in 2023. Only around a third of the countries surveyed are forecast to see real-terms salary increase, though this is better than the 22% that experienced increases this year.” Average salaries fell 3.8% in 2022, according to ECA.

ECA’s Salary Trends Survey is based on information collected from over 360 multinational companies in 68 countries and cities.

Read more: New jobs report shows salary increases are nearly on par with inflation

These are the top 10 countries and their predicted real-terms salary increases in 2023: India (4.6%); Vietnam (4%); China (3.8%); Brazil (3.4%); Saudi Arabia (2.3%); Malaysia (2.2%); Cambodia (2.2%); Thailand (2.2%); Oman (2%); and Russia (1.9%).

And the bottom five, with their expected decreases: Pakistan (-9.9%); Ghana (-11.9%); Turkey (-14.4%); Sri Lanka (-20.5%); and Argentina (-26.1%).

Alex Millson reports for Bloomberg News.

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