The  recession warning klaxons are sounding off once again. The Conference Board announced that its Leading Economic Index declined by 0.7% in June 2023 to 106.1 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.6% in May.

The fall was "fueled by gloomier consumer expectations, weaker new orders, an increased number of initial claims for unemployment, and a reduction in housing construction," according to Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, business cycle indicators, at The Conference Board. "The Leading Index has been in decline for fifteen months—the longest streak of consecutive decreases since 2007-08, during the runup to the Great Recession. Taken together, June's data suggests economic activity will continue to decelerate in the months ahead. We forecast that the US economy is likely to be in recession from Q3 2023 to Q1 2024. Elevated prices, tighter monetary policy, harder-to-get credit, and reduced government spending are poised to dampen economic growth further."

It's not the only news suggesting a downturn. There's the Treasury yield curve inversion, with the 2-year rising above the 10-year starting in early July 2022, more than a year. The 10-year sunk below the 3-month late in October 2022. It's currently under by nearly 100 basis points.