Researchers used artificial intelligence and predictive analytics to identify four factors that can make drugs more vulnerable to shortages:

Low prices. Drug products, commonly older generics, with low prices have a higher risk of shortage. Product discontinuation increased by 40% in one year, from 100 drug products in 2022 to 140 in 2023, suggesting that tightening margins forced manufacturers to leave the market.
Manufacturing complexity. Drugs with higher manufacturing complexity, such as sterile injectables, are more vulnerable to shortage. Manufacturing complexity also can be seen in certain therapeutic classes, such as some antibiotics that require dedicated facilities and in certain active ingredients that require complex chemical synthesis.
Geographic concentration. Drugs in which the active pharmaceutical ingredient and/or finished dose are made in a single or a few locations are more susceptible to shortage.
Quality concerns. Quality-related issues that surface in regulatory agency inspection outcomes and manufacturer recalls also influence drug shortage risk, but these issues must be used along with other information to be meaningful.

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Patient health may be at risk as drug shortages become more widespread, research finds