U.S. health care industry could see a 100,000 worker gap by 2028
Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, the health care labor market faced challenges, with the demand for professionals outpacing supply.
The U.S. health care industry could face a shortage of 100,000 workers by 2028, according to a new report from Mercer.
“A shortage of 100,000 health care workers will exacerbate existing disparities in health care access in certain states,” said Dan Lezotte, a partner in Mercer’s U.S. Workforce Strategy and Analytics Practice. “It is imperative that health care systems take action and develop strategies to address shortages so patient care is not impacted.”
If current U.S. workforce trends continue, the health care workforce is projected to reach 18.6 million by 2028, an increase of more than 1.5 million from 2023. However, with demand expected to rise to 18.7 million, this still leaves a shortfall of more than 100,000 workers within five years. Although this gap may not seem critical in absolute terms, it adds significant strain to a system already burdened by geographic and demographic disparities in access to care.
Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, the health care labor market faced challenges, with the demand for professionals outpacing supply. The report, Future of the U.S. Healthcare Industry: Labor Market Projections by 2028, highlights how such factors such as accelerated resignations, worker burnout, an aging population and wages that lag the broader labor market are contributing to the decline in labor supply in certain states, particularly for primary care physicians, advanced practice providers and nurses.
“American health care workers are under enormous strain,” said William Self, a partner and Mercer’s Global Workforce Strategy and Analytics Leader. “Burnout, under-compensation and wage stagnation have had material impacts on the supply of health care labor. Prolonged inflation in health care costs, combined with these critical labor shortages, could present an existential threat to some health care systems. The inability to attract the right health care labor will make operating in certain locations much more difficult and increase health equity gaps, like those between rural and urban populations.”
Related: States struggle to find solutions to health care worker shortage
To combat labor shortages, employers will need to develop comprehensive strategic plans and innovative tactics for attracting and retaining talent, encompassing strong compensation and benefits packages and creative ways of sourcing talent, redesigning work, optimizing schedules and more. It is also crucial for health care systems and governments to work together to address specific labor gaps across locations and occupations, including subspecialties within health care labor, such as physicians who specialize in women’s health or young children. Through collaboration, states can close these gaps and create stronger health care systems.
“Health care systems are not just competing with other health care systems — they are competing with other industries, especially in filling their lower-wage/support positions which are critical to the overall delivery of quality patient care,” the report said. “Health care systems will need to up their game if they want to win this competition for talent.”