'We are not going back to the office': Tech drives remote, global workforce trend

Technology and globalization are converging to shape the workforce of the future.

“Our research shows that over a quarter of all jobs are expected to change,” said Isabelle Leliaert, manager of work, wages and job creation for the World Economic Forum. “Most executives don’t need convincing that talent is critical to business transformation. A study by the Wharton School of Economics shows that 60% of the jobs done today did not exist in the 1940s. Research also shows that globally, 92 million jobs could be done fully remotely by 2030, up from 73 million today. This, of course, creates a lot of opportunities in the labor market.”

Leliaert moderated a discussion of Global Work and How Jobs are Changing during the October 24 Future of Work Policy Summit sponsored by Deel. Advanced technology is driving a trend that few could have dreamed of as recently as a half-century ago.

“The term `telework’ just had its 50^th birthday last year,” said Nick Bloom, Ph.D., professor of economics at Stanford University. “The idea didn’t even exist until 1973. Working from home, as we now call it, has been roughly doubling every 15 years. The pandemic has pushed it up, but technology is really everything. If I were to predict out 10 years from now, it’s clear that remote work levels are going to be higher. Why? Because of technology. In five years, it will be big screens. In 10 years, it may be Jedi council-type things. It’s obvious that the fully remote world is rising, driven by better technology.”

Francis deSouza, former CEO of Illumina and former board member of the Walt Disney Co., identified three trends influencing the future of work:

• “Almost every industry now realizes that technology is going to play a bigger role in their industry and that the role of talent is very important,” he said. ”We have known for a long time that in creative industries like media or software development, the top talent can do things that other people cannot do. What’s interesting now is that we are seeing this played out even in industries that are asset-led rather than talent-led. Having access to top talent is a competitive differentiator, so every industry now is fighting for top talent. That means you have to go where the talent is, which is driving a more global workforce and a more remote workforce.”
• “The second trend that is playing out is that almost every company is a multinational company much earlier in its lifecycle,” deSouza said. “Whether because of global talent or because distribution is more accessible to people, you see even small companies having to be more global from day one.”
• “The third dynamic that is playing out is that companies are being forced to react more quickly to a changing environment,” he said. “That drives the demand for technology to accelerate decision-making time and cycle times within companies.”

Businesses enjoy several significant benefits from a remote workforce with a global reach.

“One of the most immediate benefits of remote work that people jump to is that you don’t have to pay for office space, which typically is about 10% of wages,” Bloom said. “I tell people, ‘If you can make this job fully remote, unless you think the remote person is more than 10% less productive, you’re already a winner.’

“You also have access to a much bigger labor pool. And if you are in an expensive place like the Bay Area and can hire from somewhere else, you are getting much more talent for your money. Research from New York University shows that post-pandemic, young companies that are fully remote actually are more successful. They may not remain remote forever, but there are a large number of companies that are starting life as fully remote and doing extremely well.”

Although businesses don’t have to be fully remote to succeed, it also is not an impediment to their growth.

“Today, there are companies across the spectrum that are successful,” deSouza said. “There are companies that are fully remote, there are companies that are hybrid and there are companies that are fully in the office that are extremely successful. What I am seeing is that the limitation seems to be the skillset of the CEO and the leadership. There are leadership teams that know how to manage only a primarily in-office workforce and others that have learned how to manage more remotely.”

Related: Amazon now requiring employees to be in office 5 days a week

His advice to leaders is to take an intentional approach to how they structure their workforce.

“What we are seeing is that to be successful with a fully remote or hybrid business, you need a coherent strategy,” he said. “If you intend to be fully remote, you need the norms and processes around who you recruit, how you do onboarding, how you set up a culture, how communications patterns happen and how you identify top performers and do promotions. This requires the right infrastructure in terms of tools and the right cultural norms, such as how often and why you bring people together. It’s pointless to bring people to the office just to sit on Zoom all day long. You need to be intentional about it.”

As the numbers show, remote work is here to stay.

“Pre-pandemic in the United States, 5% of workers worked from home, and now it’s about 25%,” Bloom said. “That’s a massive fivefold increase just in the last five years. If we look out 10 years from now, I think we will reach 30% or 35%.

“The back-to-the-office movement died in early 2023, We are not going back to the office.”