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New tariffs — extra taxes on imports — suddenly became a more concrete concern for employer-sponsored health plans Saturday when President Donald Trump said he would go ahead with imposing 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada and 10% tariffs on imports from China.
Trump said Monday that he would put off implementing the tariffs on Canada and Mexico for 30 days. The new tariffs on China took effect.
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A market research firm, Black Book Research, conducted an online survey of about 200 executives involved in providing and paying for health care, and it found that 82% of the executives agreed that full implementation would increase hospital and health system costs by at least 15% in the next six months.
About 69% agreed that the tariffs imposed on China could increase prescription drug costs by at least 10%, according to a summary of the results posted Sunday.
The full results are available only behind a paywall. But they are a sign that executives fear that full implementation of the tariffs could have a big impact on U.S. health care costs.
The Coalition for a Prosperous America, a strong supporter of tariffs on pharmaceutical imports, says that China accounted for 31% of U.S. pharmaceutical imports by weight in 2023, and that imports account for about 33%. of U.S. pharmaceutical spending.
U.S. hospitals, clinics and medical offices also import everything from X-ray machines to syringes from Mexico and a wide range of products from Canada.
Former President Joe Biden had talked about imposing new tariffs, and Trump promised to increase tariffs throughout his presidential campaign.
Powell Brown, the chief executive officer of Brown & Brown, a big benefits broker, mentioned the possibility last week, when he went over the company's earnings for the fourth quarter of 2024 with securities analysts.
"From a U.S. perspective, the main topics that most business leaders are watching include policy changes from the new presidential administration, the outcomes of potential tariffs, the timing and trajectory of interest rates, inflation and finally, geopolitical matters," Brown said.
But Brown did not mention the topic again during the call. The analysts did not ask Brown about the topic, and the topic never came up at all during the Cigna, Elevance of UnitedHealth earnings calls.
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Many health care executives talked about the topic only in passing, emphasizing that it would be hard for them to estimate the impact until they knew more about what tariffs would be like.
Jason Hollar, the CEO of Cardinal Health, a company that distributes pharmaceuticals and other medical products, acknowledged during his company's earnings call that the impact of full implementation of the Trump tariffs could be painful.
"We'll continue to do what we can, to minimize the impact, as it relates to tariffs," Hollar said. "But, make no mistake, if there are widespread tariffs anywhere from the 10% to 25% range, I anticipate there will be corresponding price increases. We will do what we can to minimize those. But with 1% to 2% margins, we will not absorb whatever impacts are left."
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