The budget deal Senate leaders reached late Wednesday would add nearly $300 billion in government spending over two years and push the deficit higher, exactly the opposite of what the economic textbooks say lawmakers should be doing, said a Moodys economist.
"If the next president is not going to have a recession, it will be a U.S. record," said Gad Levanon, chief economist for North America at the Conference Board in New York.
Warming weather, confident consumers and a healthier housing market all argue for a rebound in growth and hiring after a harsh and frigid winter rocked the economy in the first three months of the year, economists said.
The drop in joblessness suggests the U.S. labor market is tightening, raising the odds that a pick-up in wages will eventually lead to faster inflation.
Workers are clinging to their jobs as prospects fade for higher-paying employment. Households are socking away more money and charging less on credit cards. And young adults are living with their parents longer rather than venturing out on their own.